UFC on ESPN+ 34 breakdown: Can mild underdog Augusto Sakai put away Alistair Overeem?

Alistair Overeem

Staple info:

• Height: 6’4″ Age: 40 Weight: 253 lbs. Reach: 80″
• Last fight: TKO win over Walt Harris (May 16, 2020)
• Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Strikeforce and DREAM heavyweight titles
+ K-1 grand prix heavyweight champion (2010)
+ ADCC European winner
+ 25 KO victories
+ 17 submission wins
+ 34 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate and variating shot selection
+ Devastating knees and kicks
+ Crafty clinch game
+ Underrated takedown ability
+ Solid top control
^ Good grip-fighting/ground striking
+ Dangerous guillotine choke
– Dropped or stopped in 10 of last 17 fights

Augusto Sakai

Staple info:

• Height: 6’3″ Age: 29 Weight: 259 lbs. Reach: 77″
• Last fight: Decision win over Blagoy Ivanov (May 30, 2020)
• Camp: Gile Ribeiro Team (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Amateur muay Thai experience
+ 11 KO victories
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Puts together punches well
+ Shows defensive awareness
^ Slips, checks and rolls
+ Moves well for frame
^ Will shift stances on attack
+ Deceptively savvy in the clinch
^ Serviceable wrestling/hard to control
+ Solid transitional grappling
^ Competent choices from top or bottom
+ Durable chin/never stopped or submitted

Augusto Sakai vs. Chase Sherman, UFC Fight Night 137

The main event in Las Vegas features a fun heavyweight affair with all the volatile swings attached.

A somewhat unassuming slugger, [autotag[Augusto Sakai[/autotag] moves deceptively well for his large frame, staying relatively light on his feet. Though I’m sure the miles of competitive running that Sakai seems to do in his free time helps his efforts in the footwork and cardio departments, the Brazilian contender started off his martial arts journey with muay Thai at the age of 14, something that comes through in his style.

Whether Sakai is shifting forward in combination or trying to counter off of his back foot, the 29-year-old shows a solid feel for striking traffic. From rolling his head off of his crosses to feinting his initial setups, there are a lot of small things that Sakai does in the striking realm that can be easy to miss if you judge a book by it’s cover.

Nevertheless, Sakai has had some of his hardest fights against veterans who can stick and move, which means he’ll need to respect the offerings of Alistair Overeem when coming forward.

When facing aggressive forward movers in the past, Overeem typically elects to hang just outside of range for safe distance – keeping his space – and looking for his openings to strike. If you have been watching Overeem since his days in PRIDE, then you will know that the Dutchman didn’t always fight this way.

Although the striking upgrades made during the K-1 chapter of his career helped him immensely, it wasn’t until Overeem’s run of UFC knockout losses that we saw him adjust his footwork and approach.

Already dangerous off of his stance shifts, it was Overeem’s confidence in his head movement and technique that often allowed him to plot in front of his opponents longer than he needed to. But after a series of camp changes during his run of losses, Overeem seemed to take things to another level at Jackson-Wink, where he would embrace a slightly different method than before.

Like many fighters who come from that camp, Overeem will circle more comfortably from the outside as he looks to sharpshoot his attacks like a torpedo plane on a bombing run. Among the highest striking accuracy in the division, this style is optimal for Overeem and also plays a huge role in protecting his chin from unnecessary roughness.

Perceived technical advantages aside, Overeem is obviously not beyond being on the wrong end of power shots, as I’ll be curious to see if the former Strikeforce champ elects to change phases in this fight.

Alistair Overeem vs. Sergei Pavlovich, UFC Fight Night 141

Given Overeem is the more dangerous man on the mat, I suspect that the clinch will serve as a key junction in this matchup.

Even with names like Josh Barnett or Randy Couture in the mix, you can certainly make an argument for Overeem being one of the best heavyweight clinch fighters we’ve seen in MMA. Renowned for his devastating knees in-close, it is the slick grip and hand-fighting of the Dutchman that allows him to construct and control his demolitions.

The lynchpin for striking with effectiveness from both the clinch and the ground comes down the same thing: the ability to grip fight. Hence why most good ground-and-pounders make for good clinch strikers and vice versa.

Grip-fighting is also an arguable lifesaver on the defensive end, as most takedowns and submissions (as well as passes and advances, to a certain extent) become incredibly difficult with the use of only one grasping limb. With this in mind, the exchanges that happen between the two inside the clinch should carry extra weight.

That said, Sakai is no slouch in this space, showing a deceptive savvy in close the goes beyond the clubbing abilities he displayed opposite Marcin Tybura.

Whether Sakai is hoisting opposition off of his hips with an overhook or digging for underhooks to get a reversal, the young fighter’s prior cross-training in the United States (previously spending time at places like American Top Team) has quietly paid dividends, as the Brazilian is difficult to control in close quarters.

However, when Sakai has been taken down, we’ve seen mixed results.

Early in Sakai’s career, he showed the ability to stay calm in bad positions, as the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt smartly swam to an underhook accompanied by a half guard (akin to the Demian Maia metagame) in order to safely get back to his feet. But in his last fight with Blagoy Ivanov, Sakai found himself fighting at a very high pace, as he seemed to elect to stay on his back and recover once taken down at the end of the second round.

Against an excellent ground striker like Overeem, Sakai cannot afford to be complacent in such spots. Overeem has spent the last few camps alongside Curtis Blaydes and the Elevation Fight Team, as the 21-year pro still shows the ability to scramble with the division’s best.

Augusto Sakai

The oddsmakers opened the older veteran at nearly a 2-1 favorite, while public money has come in on the underdog, listing Overeem -145 and Sakai +125 as of this writing.

Despite being a longtime Overeem fan who doesn’t disagree with him being favored in this spot, I still seemingly find myself on the other side here.

Sure, Overeem will be the toughest test Sakai has faced on paper, but it’s not like the Brazilian hasn’t been faced vets who can strike or grapple before. Furthermore, Sakai appears to keep a higher pace while seldom getting stung in the process, as the 9-year pro has yet to be stopped or submitted in professional competition.

Overeem has an undeniable edge on the floor and overall from a technical and experience standpoint. However, if he is not finishing the fight, history has proven that – regardless of whether or not he is winning rounds – Overeem’s chin remains the common culprit for him coming up short.

For that reason, I find myself picking against the veteran here. Unless Overeem is able to find a way to become the first person to stop Sakai, then I see the former UFC title challenger being stuck in a dangerous fight that I have a hard time seeing go past the third round.